September 2026 Jobs Report: 29,000 Jobs Added
The BLS released the September 2026 Employment Situation on Friday, October 2, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET: payrolls rose 29,000, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, and July and August were revised down by a combined 60,000. Polymarket's two event boards converged to the print, and the October Fed board repriced toward a hold.
Published July 21, 2026 · Updated October 2, 2026 · Release shipped · Next planned refresh: settlement confirmation (~October 5–6), then pre-release check for November 6
The answer first
The September 2026 U.S. jobs report, released Friday, October 2, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET, reported +29,000 nonfarm payroll jobs (preliminary; the BLS called the change "little") and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%. Labor force participation rose to 61.8%, average hourly earnings edged up 5 cents to $37.81 (+0.1% on the month, +3.0% over the year), and the two prior months were revised down by a combined 60,000 (August +162,000 → +133,000; July +21,000 → -10,000). At an October 2, 2026 post-release snapshot (14:16 UTC), both Polymarket events pinned the official outcomes — the 4.2% rate bucket and "add 0–50k" jobs bucket at 99.95¢ each — with about $62,523 in combined volume while formal settlement was still pending. The next jobs report is Friday, November 6, 2026.
Official September 2026 results — released October 2
The Bureau of Labor Statistics published the September Employment Situation (USDL-26-1549) at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, October 2, 2026. Figures below come from the official release text and BLS public data series retrieved October 2, 2026 (~14:16 UTC); payroll estimates are preliminary and subject to revision.
Nonfarm payrolls: +29,000
Total nonfarm employment changed little in September, up 29,000 (preliminary) to 159,044,000 — versus a +45,000 average monthly gain over the prior 12 months. All major industries changed little over the month.
Unemployment rate: 4.2%
Up from 4.1%; the rate has stayed inside a narrow 4.1%–4.3% band since March. The number of unemployed people was 7.1 million. The jobless rate for Black workers rose to 7.0%; other major worker groups showed little change.
Revisions: -60,000 combined
July was revised down from +21,000 to -10,000 (-31,000) and August from +162,000 to +133,000 (-29,000). Two months of previously reported payroll growth were cut by 60,000 jobs in one release.
Wages and hours
Average hourly earnings rose 5 cents (+0.1%) to $37.81, up 3.0% over the year; the workweek held at 34.4 hours. Participation ticked up to 61.8% and the employment-population ratio was 59.2%.
Post-release market board (October 2, 14:16 UTC)
Within about 90 minutes of the release, both Polymarket events repriced to the official print and pinned the two winning buckets at the top of the displayed range while still open — formal settlement had not yet been recorded at the snapshot time.
4.2% bucket: 99.95¢
The September Unemployment Rate event traded the 4.2% contract at 99.95¢ with every other bucket at 0.05¢ — matching the official rate tick-up. Event volume reached $36,234 with $97,601 liquidity across nine contracts.
"Add 0–50k": 99.95¢
The payroll event's "add between 0 and 50k" contract traded at 99.95¢ after the +29,000 print. Volume $26,289 with $85,231 liquidity across seven contracts; the event lists an October 3 end time.
$62,523 combined volume
Combined volume across the two events at the snapshot — a smaller release-day book than August's $121,408, in line with the softer pre-release interest in this cycle.
Settlement pending
Neither event was recorded as resolved at the 14:16 UTC snapshot. A settlement confirmation check is planned for ~October 5–6, mirroring the September 7 check that confirmed the August events.
Post-release displayed boards — top contracts
| Event | Leading contract | YES | Contract volume | Event volume | Event liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September Unemployment Rate | 4.2% | 99.95¢ | $6,588 | $36,234 | $97,601 |
| How many jobs added in September | Add 0–50k | 99.95¢ | $4,118 | $26,289 | $85,231 |
| All other 14 displayed buckets | 0.05¢ | — | Both events open; not yet resolved | ||
What the September print did to October FOMC odds
The October 27–28 FOMC meeting is the next scheduled policy decision after this report, and its Polymarket board repriced around the release.
No change: 83.50¢
The October Fed event traded "no change" at 83.50¢ (bid/ask 83 / 84) at the 14:16 UTC snapshot — up from roughly 36.5% on this site's September 26 pre-report snapshot.
+25 bp: 15.50¢
A 25 basis-point hike slipped to 15.50¢ (bid/ask 15 / 16) — it had been the favorite at about 62.5% on September 26, before the weak payroll print and the -60,000 revision.
$23.4M traded
The October Fed event has cumulative volume of $23.4M with about $2.8 million in liquidity — by far the largest board connected to this data drop.
CPI comes first
September CPI releases October 14 — another input before the meeting. The Fed weighs inflation, activity, and financial conditions alongside employment.
Pre-release market snapshot (August 31, 14:05 UTC)
Two active Polymarket event groups were verified open on August 31, 2026 at ~14:05 UTC, four days before the release. The tables below are kept as the pre-release baseline; figures are displayed prices and contract volumes at that moment, not live quotes.
$53,163 combined volume
August Unemployment Rate: $22,239. How many jobs added in August: $30,924. Liquidity was $6,719 and $11,502 respectively — modest boards that can move quickly.
15 open contracts
Nine unemployment-rate buckets (≤3.8% through ≥4.6%) and six payroll-change buckets (lose >50k through add ≥150k). Both events remained open and unclosed.
Rate: 4.1%–4.2% cluster
4.1% traded at 32¢ and 4.2% at 32.5¢ — together about 64.5¢ of displayed YES. The market prices a hold-or-tick-up outcome over a drop below 4.0% (about 18.9¢ combined).
Payrolls: no majority bucket
"Add 0–50k jobs" led at 25.5¢, but the two negative buckets summed to about 28¢ after July's -23,000 print. The board leans modestly positive without conviction.
August Unemployment Rate — displayed board
| Outcome bucket | YES | Bid / Ask | Contract volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.1% | 32¢ | 31 / 33 | $7,024 |
| 4.2% | 32.5¢ | 31 / 34 | $5,745 |
| 4.3% | 14¢ | 12 / 16 | $3,480 |
| 4.0% | 13¢ | 12 / 14 | $3,046 |
| 4.4% | 6.5¢ | 2 / 11 | $673 |
| 4.5% | 5.5¢ | 1 / 10 | $479 |
| 3.9% | 4.45¢ | 1.9 / 7 | $743 |
| ≥4.6% | 3¢ | 1 / 5 | $510 |
| ≤3.8% | 1.45¢ | 1 / 1.9 | $551 |
How many jobs added in August — displayed board
| Outcome bucket | YES | Bid / Ask | Contract volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Add 0–50k | 25.5¢ | 25 / 26 | $13,952 |
| Add 50–100k | 21¢ | 15 / 27 | $4,266 |
| Lose >50k | 14.65¢ | 13.5 / 15.8 | $4,871 |
| Add 100–150k | 16.9¢ | 14.1 / 19.7 | $3,361 |
| Lose 0–50k | 13.3¢ | 9.8 / 16.8 | $2,926 |
| Add ≥150k | 5¢ | 3 / 7 | $1,547 |
Official August 2026 results — released September 4
The Bureau of Labor Statistics published the August Employment Situation at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, September 4, 2026. Figures below come from official BLS data series retrieved September 4, 2026 (~14:00 UTC); payroll estimates are preliminary and subject to revision.
Nonfarm payrolls: +162,000
Total nonfarm employment rose to 159,075,000 (seasonally adjusted, preliminary) from July's 158,913,000 — a gain of 162,000 jobs, versus July's initially reported -23,000.
Unemployment rate: 4.1%
Unchanged for a second straight month (July 4.1%, June 4.2%). Household employment rose 569,000, and the labor force participation rate increased to 61.6% from 61.4%.
July revised up: +21,000
July payroll growth was revised from the initial -23,000 to +21,000 (June 158,892,000, July 158,913,000) — a net upward revision of 44,000 that erases July's negative print.
Average hourly earnings: $37.75
Average hourly earnings for private employees rose about 0.3% on the month (from $37.65 to $37.75, preliminary). The report lands a week before the September 11 CPI release.
Post-release market board (September 4, 14:03 UTC)
Within about 90 minutes of the release, both Polymarket events repriced to the official print and pinned the two winning buckets at the top of the displayed range while still open — formal settlement had not yet been recorded at the snapshot time.
4.1% bucket: 99.95¢
The August Unemployment Rate event traded the 4.1% contract at 99.95¢ with every other bucket at 0.05¢ — matching the unchanged official rate. Event volume reached $45,808 with $172,471 liquidity.
"Add ≥150k": 99.95¢
The payroll event's "at least 150k" contract traded at 99.95¢ after the +162,000 print; the previously favored 0–50k bucket (which held $30,527 of volume) fell to 0.05¢. Volume $75,599, liquidity $44,242.
$121,408 combined volume
Combined volume more than doubled from $53,163 on August 31 to $121,408 on release day, with 15 contracts still displayed across the two events.
Settlement pending
Neither event was recorded as resolved at the 14:03 UTC snapshot (the payroll event lists a September 5 end time). A settlement confirmation check is planned for ~September 7–8.
Post-release displayed boards — top contracts
| Event | Leading contract | YES | Contract volume | Event volume | Event liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August Unemployment Rate | 4.1% | 99.95¢ | $11,134 | $45,808 | $172,471 |
| How many jobs added in August | Add at least 150k | 99.95¢ | $6,415 | $75,599 | $44,242 |
| All other 13 displayed buckets | 0.05¢ | — | Both events open; not yet resolved | ||
Official July 2026 report — the baseline, now revised
The August print was initially measured against the July first release (USDL-26-1291), which showed a softening but not collapsing labor market. On September 4 the BLS revised July payroll growth up to +21,000 from the initially reported -23,000. Key data points from the July first release, with the revision noted:
Nonfarm payrolls: -23,000 → +21,000 → -10,000
Initially reported as changed little at -23,000, with declines in local government education (-50,000), retail trade (-19,000), and financial activities (-14,000) offsetting a continued uptrend in health care (+22,000). Revised to +21,000 on September 4, 2026, then cut again to -10,000 in the October 2, 2026 revision — the second negative swing for this month.
Unemployment rate: 4.1%
Changed little from June. The number of unemployed people was 6.9 million. Both measures also changed little over the year. The labor force participation rate was 61.4%, down 0.7 percentage point since January.
Temporary layoffs rose
The number of people on temporary layoff increased by 153,000 to 921,000 in July. Permanent job losers changed little at 1.7 million. Long-term unemployed edged down to 1.8 million (25.5% of all unemployed).
Participation: 61.4%
The employment-population ratio was 58.9%, down 0.5 percentage point since January. People employed part time for economic reasons changed little at 4.8 million.
Polymarket market resolution: July report
Two Polymarket event groups tied to the July Employment Situation both resolved after the August 7 release. The unemployment event correctly settled the 4.1% bucket, and the payroll event resolved to the negative-jobs bracket.
July Unemployment Rate — RESOLVED
The event resolved to the 4.1% bucket, consistent with the BLS first-release U-3 rate. Rules specified the seasonally adjusted rate in Table A-15, one-decimal precision, and the first release rather than later revisions. The event contained nine outcome markets from ≤3.9% through ≥4.7%.
How many jobs added in July — RESOLVED
The event resolved to the below-zero bucket ("Will the US lose jobs in July?"), consistent with the -23,000 first-release print. The event had six payroll buckets from negative through 200,000+, with boundary ties assigned to the higher range. Total event volume was approximately $38,000.
September 4 events: resolution confirmed
Both Polymarket event groups that covered the August Employment Situation formally resolved after the September 4 release. A read-only Gamma check on September 7, 2026 confirmed each event closed with the winning bucket matching the published print. New labor-market events for the next release typically appear in the last week of each month.
August Unemployment Rate — RESOLVED
Rules specified the seasonally adjusted U-3 rate, one-decimal precision, and the first release — which printed 4.1%. The event closed with the 4.1% bucket as the winner, matching the post-release board from September 4.
How many jobs added in August — RESOLVED
Resolved to the change in total nonfarm payroll employment in the August first-release summary (+162,000), with exact boundary ties to the higher bracket. The "add at least 150k" bucket closed as the winner, matching the +162,000 print.
Remaining 2026 jobs report timeline
8:30 a.m. ET. Nonfarm payrolls -23,000; unemployment rate 4.1%. Polymarket events for both series resolved correctly.
Both September 4 events verified open: 15 contracts, ~$53,000 combined volume. Snapshot tables above record the displayed boards four days before the release.
8:30 a.m. ET. Payrolls +162,000; unemployment 4.1%; participation 61.6%; July revised to +21,000. Both Polymarket events pinned to the print (99.95¢). Revised again October 2: August +133,000, July -10,000.
Both September 4 events formally resolved with winning buckets matching the published print (4.1% rate; "at least 150k" payrolls). Recorded read-only; no page change was needed.
The September 15–16 meeting raised the target range 25 bp to 3.75%–4.00% on a 12–0 vote; the September Fed hub holds the settled record.
8:30 a.m. ET, on schedule. Payrolls +29,000; unemployment 4.2%; July and August revised down by a combined 60,000. Both Polymarket events pinned within ~90 minutes and the October Fed board repriced toward no change. The September 30 federal funding deadline context is tracked in the government shutdown guide.
Confirm both October 2 events formally resolved to the official print and record the outcomes here; then begin the pre-release window for November 6.
The next major data input before the Fed meeting — see the 2026 CPI calendar.
First post-jobs-report policy decision; live board and research workflow in the October Fed hub.
8:30 a.m. ET, three days after the November 3 U.S. midterm election. The data month and political event remain separate resolution contexts.
8:30 a.m. ET. This is the final Employment Situation publication listed on the BLS calendar for calendar year 2026.
What the U.S. jobs report actually measures
The BLS Employment Situation is not one number. The agency publishes information from two monthly surveys with different samples and concepts. Treating them as interchangeable can produce a faulty search answer or a settlement mistake.
Establishment survey
The Current Employment Statistics survey covers businesses and government agencies. It produces the widely cited change in total nonfarm payroll employment, plus estimates for hours and earnings.
Household survey
The Current Population Survey measures people and labor-force status. It produces the official unemployment rate, employment, unemployment, and participation measures.
First release
Early payroll estimates can be revised as more reports arrive and seasonal factors are recalculated. A contract may use the initially published figure even when the historical data later changes.
Precision and buckets
Unemployment is commonly reported to one decimal place, while payroll events may use ranges. Boundary language decides whether an exact threshold belongs to the lower or higher bucket.
Jobs-report resolution checklist
1. Name the series
Confirm total nonfarm payroll employment, U-3 unemployment, earnings, participation, or another measure. A familiar headline is not a substitute for the stated series.
2. Match the month
Write down both the reference month and release date. July data released in August is different from August data released in September.
3. Check adjustment
Seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted values can differ. Use only the version named in the contract.
4. Parse every boundary
For ranges, test exact endpoints such as 50,000 or 100,000. Check whether the rules put a tie in the lower or higher bracket.
5. Read the revision rule
Determine whether the first BLS publication controls or whether a later correction, benchmark, or revised release can change settlement.
6. Timestamp market data
Capture bid, ask, depth, volume, and time together. Use the prediction-market odds guide before treating displayed cents as a clean probability.
How the jobs report fits the 2026 macro calendar
Labor data can affect expectations, but it does not mechanically determine inflation or monetary policy. Build a dated evidence map instead of turning one release into a guaranteed outcome.
Inflation sequence
The 2026 CPI release calendar tracks the October 14 CPI release (September data). The August CPI (released September 11) printed headline +0.4% MoM / +3.4% YoY with core at +0.3% MoM / 2.4% YoY. Payroll growth and CPI answer different questions.
Federal Reserve sequence
The October FOMC guide maps the October 27–28 meeting; the September 15–16 meeting delivered a 25 bp hike to 3.75%–4.00% (12–0 vote). Employment is one input alongside inflation, activity, financial conditions, and Fed communications.
Market-move context
The biggest-movers watchlist can flag repricing after a release, but a large move is a research prompt, not a recommendation or trading signal.
Evidence quality
The prediction-market accuracy guide explains why rules, liquidity, timing, and the comparison benchmark matter when evaluating a forecast.
Frequently asked questions
What was the September 2026 jobs report?
Released Friday, October 2, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET: nonfarm payrolls changed little at +29,000 (preliminary), the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%, participation rose to 61.8%, and average hourly earnings edged up 5 cents to $37.81 (+0.1% on the month, +3.0% over the year). August payrolls were revised down to +133,000 and July to -10,000 — a combined 60,000 reduction.
When is the next U.S. jobs report?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET, covering October reference-month data, three days after the November 3 U.S. midterm election.
What was the August 2026 jobs report?
The first release on September 4, 2026 reported +162,000 nonfarm payroll jobs and a 4.1% unemployment rate. On October 2, 2026 August was revised down to +133,000 and July from +21,000 to -10,000.
What are the remaining 2026 jobs report dates?
The remaining Employment Situation release dates on the 2026 BLS calendar are November 6 and December 4, both at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.
How did Polymarket markets react to the October 2 jobs report?
Within about 90 minutes of the release, the September Unemployment Rate event traded the 4.2% bucket at 99.95¢ and the payroll event traded "add 0–50k jobs" at 99.95¢, matching the +29,000 print. Combined volume was about $62,523. Formal settlement was still pending at the October 2 snapshot.
What did the September report do to Fed rate odds?
After the release, the Polymarket event for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting repriced to about 83.50¢ for no change versus 15.50¢ for a 25 basis-point hike. On this site's September 26 pre-report snapshot a 25 bp hike had been the favorite at about 62.5%.
Are payroll growth and the unemployment rate the same statistic?
No. Nonfarm payroll employment comes from the establishment survey, while the unemployment rate comes from the household survey. They cover different populations and can move differently.
Can a later BLS revision change a market result?
Only if the individual rules allow it. The reviewed unemployment events say revisions after the first release do not count; other contracts may use different language.
When will this 2026 jobs report guide be refreshed?
A settlement confirmation check is planned for approximately October 5–6, 2026, followed by a pre-release check ahead of the November 6 release.
More live odds on this topic
📈 Every live Polymarket market on the topic: US Economy odds · Fed & Interest Rates odds
Sources and methodology
- BLS: Employment Situation Summary — September 2026 — official release for the October 2, 2026 data drop (USDL-26-1549): +29,000 payrolls, 4.2% unemployment rate, -60,000 combined revisions to July and August, next release November 6, 2026; figures cross-verified via the official BLS public data API retrieved October 2, 2026.
- Polymarket Gamma: September Unemployment Rate — post-release status at the October 2, 14:16 UTC snapshot: open, nine buckets, $36,234 volume, $97,601 liquidity, 4.2% at 99.95¢ and all other buckets 0.05¢; rules resolve on the seasonally adjusted U-3 rate in the BLS Employment Situation for September 2026.
- Polymarket Gamma: How many jobs added in September? — post-release status at the October 2, 14:16 UTC snapshot: open, seven buckets, $26,289 volume, $85,231 liquidity, "add 0–50k" at 99.95¢; rules cite the October 2, 2026 8:30 a.m. ET release with exact-boundary ties to the higher bracket.
- Polymarket Gamma: Fed decision in October — post-release repricing snapshot October 2, 14:16 UTC: no-change 83.50¢ (bid/ask 83 / 84) vs +25 bp 15.50¢ (bid/ask 15 / 16), $23.4M cumulative event volume; pre-report reference: 62.5% hike favorite on this site's September 26 Fed-odds snapshot.
- BLS: Employment Situation Summary — August 2026 — official release for the September 4, 2026 data drop (+162,000 payrolls, 4.1% unemployment rate); figures cross-verified via the official BLS public data API (series CES0000000001, LNS14000000, LNS11300000, CES0500000003) retrieved September 4, 2026 ~14:00 UTC.
- BLS: Schedule of Selected Releases for 2026 — official September through December Employment Situation dates and 8:30 a.m. ET times; checked August 13, 2026. The September 4, 2026 date was re-confirmed on August 31, 2026 by the reviewed contract rules that cite the BLS release schedule.
- BLS: Current Employment Statistics FAQ — payroll survey scope, survey comparison, release cadence, and vintage data.
- Polymarket Gamma: July Unemployment Rate — resolved to 4.1% bucket; nine outcome markets, U-3 source, precision, and first-release rule.
- Polymarket Gamma: How many jobs added in July? — resolved to below-zero bucket; six payroll ranges, BLS source, boundary rule; ~$38K volume.
- Polymarket Gamma: August Unemployment Rate — post-release status at the September 4, 2026 ~14:03 UTC snapshot: open, nine buckets, $45,808 volume, $172,471 liquidity, 4.1% at 99.95¢ and all other buckets 0.05¢; pre-release August 31 figures: $22,239 volume, $6,719 liquidity, 4.1%–4.2% cluster.
- Polymarket Gamma: How many jobs added in August? — post-release status at the September 4, 2026 ~14:03 UTC snapshot: open, six buckets, $75,599 volume, $44,242 liquidity, "at least 150k" at 99.95¢; rules cite the BLS Employment Situation Summary released September 4, 2026, 8:30 AM ET, with exact-boundary ties to the higher bracket.
Methodology: this is a same-URL post-release settlement update of the standing 2026 jobs-report hub, shipped October 2, 2026 within two hours of the 8:30 a.m. ET release. Official figures come from the BLS release text (USDL-26-1549) and public data series retrieved ~14:16 UTC; all prices, volumes, and liquidity figures are point-in-time Gamma snapshots (August 31 ~14:05 UTC and September 4 ~14:03 UTC for the August events; October 2 ~14:16 UTC for the September and Fed events) and are not live data. The next planned update is the settlement confirmation (~October 5–6), then the November 6 pre-release check.