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Polymarket APY Calculator

Market list updated October 6, 2026 · refreshed twice a day

Annualized return turns a Polymarket price into a yearly rate: buy at p, collect $1 if you are right, and the return (1 − p) ÷ p is spread over the days until resolution. Example: a share bought at 95¢ that pays $1 in 60 days returns 5.26% — 32.0% a year simple, 36.6% compounded. The return only arrives if the outcome happens; the discount is the market's price for the risk that it does not.

Annualized return calculator

Return if right—
Annualized (simple)—
APY (compounded)—
Expected APY at your probability—
Fee per share—
Break-even probability—

High-probability Polymarket markets and their annualized return

Favorites priced 85¢ or more that resolve in 7–400 days, ranked by the yearly return you would earn only if the favourite wins. Cost is the best ask plus the taker fee.

MarketSideCostReturn if rightDaysAPYRewards
Billboard 200 #1 Album Week of October 17The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore88.5¢12.96%738592.6%
White House # posts October 6 - October 13, 2026?200+89.5¢11.74%729291.2%
Billboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of October 17Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley89.5¢11.74%722715.4%
MLB Playoffs: Team to advance to ALCSChicago White Sox89.5¢11.74%97142.7%
Will Citigroup (C) beat quarterly earnings?Yes92.4¢8.26%75199.7%
MLB Playoffs: Team to advance to NLCSMilwaukee Brewers90.5¢10.56%94698.4%
GitHub.com critical incident?October 1590.4¢10.67%104560.0%
Poprad Mayoral Election WinnerAnton Danko85.5¢16.95%192047.0%
Will Ukraine target Moscow?October 1693.0¢7.53%111108.0%
Bank of Israel Decision in October?No Change91.4¢9.40%14864.5%
How strong will Choi-wan be?Very strong94.3¢6.06%10831.3%
What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?↓ $18685.5¢16.95%26829.1%
What price will Bitcoin hit in October?↑ 87,50085.9¢16.42%26771.9%
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?↓ $8586.5¢15.63%26691.1%
Jynxzi, Ron, and Los beat Minecraft?October 1495.2¢5.00%9687.4%
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?Below 4.89%86.6¢15.47%26675.6%
South Carolina Senate Election WinnerDarline Graham Nordone (R)85.5¢16.95%29633.5%
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?Yes89.3¢11.99%22575.7%
Republican House odds hit __ by October 31?↓ 7%87.9¢13.77%26527.5%
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in NovemberNo change86.6¢15.47%29524.1%

A high APY usually means real risk or a thin order book, not free money: the price discount is what traders charge for the chance the favorite loses. Educational math, not a recommendation.

Markets paying holding rewards

Polymarket pays holding rewards on positions in these markets — 3.25% a year (Polymarket Help Center, page updated June 1, 2026; the rate is variable). See the official explanation.

Frequently asked questions

How do you calculate the annualized return of a Polymarket share?

Return = (1 − cost) ÷ cost, where cost is the price paid plus any taker fee. Simple annualized = return × 365 ÷ days to resolution; compounded APY = (1 + return)^(365 ÷ days) − 1.

Is buying 95¢ shares on Polymarket risk-free?

No. A 95¢ price means traders see roughly a 5% chance of losing the whole stake. The annualized figure is what you earn only if the outcome happens and the market resolves on time; disputes and delays stretch the holding period.

What are Polymarket holding rewards?

Polymarket pays a reward on positions in a list of long-running markets, sampled hourly and paid daily. The current rate is 3.25% a year (Polymarket Help Center, page updated June 1, 2026; the rate is variable). The markets with rewards switched on are listed on this page.

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