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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Culture & Entertainment · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 13.5%, followed by By October 31 at 2.6%. The market has $81.9K in total volume and $15 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 13.5% | -1.0 pts | $36.1K |
| By October 31 | 2.6% | — | $1.7K |
| By September 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $44.1K |
Total volume $81.9K · 24h volume $15 · Liquidity $11.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 ■ By October 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Drake officially releases a new album between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.
Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release.
The resolution source will be any official music streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Music odds · Pop Culture odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 13.5%, followed by By October 31 at 2.6%. The market has $81.9K in total volume and $15 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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