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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Culture & Entertainment · Market end date: July 1, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Hugh Jackman as Wolverine at 94.5%, followed by Benedict Cumberbatch as Doctor Strange at 93%, Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool at 92%. The market has $166.8K in total volume and $844 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kathryn Newton as Cassie Lang (settled) | 100% | +2.3 pts | $3.7K |
| Simu Liu as Shang-Chi (settled) | 100% | +2.4 pts | $3.1K |
| Hayley Atwell as Peggy Carter (settled) | 100% | +13.2 pts | $386 |
| Hugh Jackman as Wolverine | 94.5% | — | $11.3K |
| Benedict Cumberbatch as Doctor Strange | 93% | +3.0 pts | $7.2K |
| Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool | 92% | +0.5 pts | $7.8K |
| Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man | 89.8% | -0.8 pts | $14.1K |
| Hailee Steinfeld as Kate Bishop | 81.5% | -0.5 pts | $4.9K |
| Teyonah Parris as Monica Rambeau | 76% | +1.5 pts | $6.2K |
| Benedict Wong as Wong | 71.5% | — | $8.1K |
| Iman Vellani as Ms. Marvel | 70% | — | $6.2K |
| Mark Ruffalo as Hulk | 67.5% | -4.0 pts | $10.3K |
| Xochitl Gomez as America Chavez | 63.5% | +3.0 pts | $2.0K |
| Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan | 60% | +1.5 pts | $7.6K |
| Gwyneth Paltrow as Pepper Potts | 58.5% | -1.5 pts | $2.9K |
8 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $166.8K · 24h volume $844 · Liquidity $16.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Hugh Jackman as Wolverine ■ Benedict Cumberbatch as Doctor Strange ■ Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Avengers: Doomsday is a Marvel film scheduled to release on December, 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor playing the listed character appears in Avengers: Doomsday. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve upon announcement of casting, regardless of if the film is delayed, cancelled, or otherwise fails to be released. If no casting is announced, this market will resolve upon footage of the domestic theatrical cut of the film. If multiple people are cast for the same role, the listed individual being among the cast list for the relevant character will be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no casting is announced and Avengers: Doomsday is definitively cancelled or fails to be released by June 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official announcements from Marvel or Warner Bros., the domestic theatrical cut of Avengers: Doomsday, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Movies & Box Office odds · Pop Culture odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Hugh Jackman as Wolverine at 94.5%, followed by Benedict Cumberbatch as Doctor Strange at 93%, Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool at 92%. The market has $166.8K in total volume and $844 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is July 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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