Home › Polymarket odds › Geopolitics & World
Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 5.5%. The market has $4.07M in total volume and $0 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 5.5% | — | $10.4K |
| By October 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.5 pts | $2.50M |
| By December 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $708.5K |
| By November 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $347.8K |
| By November 7 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.5 pts | $201.5K |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.2 pts | $152.0K |
| By March 31 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $144.6K |
Total volume $4.07M · 24h volume $0 · Liquidity $13.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
🔔 Get alerts when big markets move — free Telegram watchlist
On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Israel odds · Middle East odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 5.5%. The market has $4.07M in total volume and $0 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
Paste this on your site, blog or newsletter. It updates with our page. How to embed
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/odds/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled? odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31/">Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled? odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/odds/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31.json — CC BY 4.0, credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link. See the developer docs.
Polymarket View, “Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled? — Polymarket odds”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
For READMEs, newsletters and forums. Markdown:
[](https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31/)
HTML:
<a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31/"><img src="https://polymarkettrader.com/badge/odds/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31.svg" alt="Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled? odds on Polymarket" width="400" height="64"></a>
Polymarket View is an independent research site, not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All Polymarket odds · Event hubs · Blog