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Polymarket week in review: October 5 – October 11, 2026

Updating through Sunday · last update October 6, 12:50 UTC

Polymarket in the week of October 5 – October 11, 2026 (so far): the biggest move was Closest Governor's Race? — Florida 5.9% → 100% (+94.1 points). 71 new markets opened in the seven days to October 6.

Biggest risers

Market	Outcome	7 days before	Price	Change
Closest Governor's Race?	Florida	5.9%	100%	+94.1 pts
Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place	Sanderson	5.7%	95.9%	+90.1 pts
Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 2nd Place	Marcel Van Hattem	11.6%	99.2%	+87.6 pts
Trujillo Mayoral Election Winner	Roy Charlie Arbaiza Corcuera	10.4%	98%	+87.6 pts
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 28?	<20	13.5%	98.3%	+84.8 pts
# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?	100M+	16.5%	99.9%+	+83.5 pts
Spain snap election called?	By December 31	17%	99.9%	+82.8 pts
Quebec General Election: PLQ # Seats?	40-43	6.9%	86.1%	+79.2 pts
Will Iran target Iraq?	By September 30	21.5%	99.9%+	+78.5 pts
Will Iran target an Arab country?	By September 30	21.5%	99.9%+	+78.5 pts

Biggest fallers

Market	Outcome	7 days before	Price	Change
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner	Eduardo Paes	85.5%	3.3%	-82.2 pts
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?	1490+	91.9%	32%	-59.9 pts
Next Claude Haiku (4.6+) released?	By October 15	89%	30%	-59.0 pts
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released?	By October 31	73.5%	21%	-52.5 pts
Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released?	By October 16	71.5%	24%	-47.5 pts
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?	40%+	92.6%	46%	-46.7 pts
Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?	55%+	74%	27.5%	-46.5 pts
Kraken IPO by ___ ?	March 31, 2027	63%	17.5%	-45.5 pts
Indiana enacts data center moratorium?	By December 31, 2027	53.5%	9.5%	-44.0 pts
Les Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?	125-128	46.8%	2.9%	-43.9 pts

New markets

→ Will Ukraine target Moscow? October 11 57.5%
→ Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? Yes 8.5%
→ Jynxzi, Ron, and Los beat Minecraft? By October 15 94.5%
→ Israel military action against Lebanon? October 23 91%
→ Ohio enacts data center moratorium? By December 31, 2028 25.5%
→ Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen? October 4 94.5%
→ North Carolina enacts data center moratorium? By December 31, 2028 25.5%
→ Spain General Election Winner PP 86%
→ Which mobs will eliminate Jynxzi, Ron or Los? Iron Golem 94.5%
→ Indiana enacts data center moratorium? By December 31, 2028 14.5%
→ Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium? By December 31, 2028 22.5%
→ Who will Trump speak to by October 31? Friedrich Merz 96.4%
→ Plague pandemic in 2026? Yes 4.0%
→ Jynxzi, Ron, and Los # of Minecraft deaths during marathon? 120-149 22%
→ Texas enacts data center moratorium? By December 31, 2028 26.5%

Moves compare the price at the last update with the chart point closest to seven days earlier, across the most-traded long-running markets we track. Live versions: this week's biggest moves and new markets.

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