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Resolved market · Category: Culture & Entertainment · Market end date: September 30, 2026
This market has closed. At the last update (October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC) it had settled on 950 - 960m, after $1.00M of total trading volume.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 950 - 960m | 100% | +0.5 pts | $264.0K |
| 940 - 950m | 0.0% | — | $298.4K |
| <940m | 0.0% | — | $169.2K |
| 960 - 970m | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $147.4K |
| 970m+ | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $122.9K |
Total volume $1.00M · 24h volume $0 · Liquidity $0. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 950 - 960m ■ 940 - 950m ■ <940m · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by September 30, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and September 30, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including September 30, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Movies & Box Office odds · Pop Culture odds
This market has closed. At the last update (October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC) it had settled on 950 - 960m, after $1.00M of total trading volume.
The event's listed end date is September 30, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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