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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Sports · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Joshua Van at 93.7%, followed by Alexandre Pantoja at 2.2%, Manel Kape at 1.9%. The market has $1.20M in total volume and $235 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Van | 93.7% | -0.2 pts | $16.0K |
| Alexandre Pantoja | 2.2% | -0.4 pts | $13.8K |
| Manel Kape | 1.9% | +0.3 pts | $7.3K |
| Brandon Moreno | 0.5% | — | $1.9K |
| Amir Albazi | <0.1% | — | $790.2K |
| Tim Elliott | <0.1% | — | $306.2K |
| Asu Almabayev | <0.1% | — | $59.2K |
| Tatsuro Taira | <0.1% | — | $1.9K |
| Brandon Royval | <0.1% | — | $1.8K |
| Steve Erceg | <0.1% | — | $1.8K |
| Kyoji Horiguchi | <0.1% | — | $1.5K |
Total volume $1.20M · 24h volume $235 · Liquidity $20.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Joshua Van ■ Alexandre Pantoja ■ Manel Kape · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the official UFC Flyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: UFC odds · Sports odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Joshua Van at 93.7%, followed by Alexandre Pantoja at 2.2%, Manel Kape at 1.9%. The market has $1.20M in total volume and $235 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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