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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Other markets · Market end date: January 8, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 14–16 at 45.5%, followed by 11–13 at 35%, 17–19 at 21.5%. The market has $1.48M in total volume and $324 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14–16 | 45.5% | -3.0 pts | $189.4K |
| 11–13 | 35% | +7.5 pts | $420.1K |
| 17–19 | 21.5% | +4.0 pts | $293.4K |
| 20+ | 1.6% | -0.4 pts | $69.5K |
| <5 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $242.9K |
| 8–10 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $159.7K |
| 5–7 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $101.1K |
Total volume $1.48M · 24h volume $324 · Liquidity $3.5K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ 14–16 ■ 11–13 ■ 17–19 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Weather odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is 14–16 at 45.5%, followed by 11–13 at 35%, 17–19 at 21.5%. The market has $1.48M in total volume and $324 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 8, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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