83 long shots came in: in our sample of 1,912 resolved markets, 1,408 outcomes were priced at 20% or less a week before close and 5.9% of them still happened, against an average price of 3.2%: long shots came in more often than those prices implied. The biggest surprise: What price will Bitcoin hit in August? (↑ 80,000 at 0.5%).
| Event | Outcome that won | Price a week out | Closed | Volume |
|---|
| What price will Bitcoin hit in August? | ↑ 80,000 | 0.5% | 2026-08-24 | $1.52M |
| Eurovision Winner 2026 | Bulgaria | 0.7% | 2026-05-17 | $6.73M |
| Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2025 | María Corina Machado | 0.9% | 2025-10-10 | $2.24M |
| What price will Bitcoin hit in August? | ↑ 77,500 | 1.1% | 2026-08-21 | $834.3K |
| Elon Musk # tweets February 24 - March 3, 2026? | 200-219 | 1.2% | 2026-03-03 | $1.56M |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Yes | 1.8% | 2026-03-04 | $131.11M |
| Elon Musk # tweets January 20 - January 27, 2026? | 380-399 | 2.5% | 2026-01-27 | $1.66M |
| Military action against Iran ends? | April 9 | 2.5% | 2026-04-13 | $237.5K |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? | Yes | 2.5% | 2026-02-04 | $30.19M |
| Elon Musk # tweets December 30 - January 6, 2026? | 520-539 | 2.5% | 2026-01-06 | $2.11M |
| What price will Bitcoin hit in August? | ↑ 75,000 | 2.6% | 2026-08-21 | $1.06M |
| What price will Ethereum hit in January? | ↓ 2,400 | 3.1% | 2026-01-31 | $1.70M |
| Elon Musk # tweets February 10 - February 17, 2026? | 240-259 | 3.2% | 2026-02-17 | $1.42M |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal? | June 15 | 3.7% | 2026-06-18 | $177.37M |
| 2026 Women's Wimbledon Winner | Linda Nosková | 4.5% | 2026-07-11 | $620.7K |
| Elon Musk # tweets December 16 - December 23, 2025? | 340-359 | 4.5% | 2025-12-23 | $1.32M |
| Canada vs. Qatar - More Markets | Over (O/U 5.5) | 4.9% | 2026-06-19 | $1.19M |
| Iran closes its airspace? | June 8 | 5.1% | 2026-06-12 | $11.79M |
| #1 Searched Person on Google this year? | d4vd | 5.2% | 2025-12-08 | $13.95M |
| US next strikes Iran? | February 28 | 5.4% | 2026-03-04 | $5.84M |
| Elon Musk # tweets February 6 - February 13, 2026? | 360-379 | 5.5% | 2026-02-13 | $1.49M |
| What day will the Lighter airdrop be? | December 30 | 5.9% | 2025-12-30 | $5.24M |
| Elon Musk # tweets January 23 - January 30, 2026? | 380-399 | 5.9% | 2026-01-30 | $1.29M |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 6.2% | 2026-05-09 | $141.25M |
| The Masters 2026: Winner | Rory McIlroy | 6.5% | 2026-04-13 | $7.42M |
| Elon Musk # tweets January 16 - January 23, 2026? | 460-479 | 6.5% | 2026-01-23 | $1.55M |
| Military action against Iran ends? | April 13 | 6.5% | 2026-04-12 | $93.2K |
| What price will Bitcoin hit in January? | ↓ 80,000 | 6.7% | 2026-01-31 | $6.75M |
| Netherlands Parliamentary Election | D66 | 7.0% | 2025-11-02 | $5.98M |
| Spain vs. Cabo Verde | Draw (Spain vs. Cabo Verde) | 7.1% | 2026-06-15 | $4.40M |
| IEM Cologne Major 2026 Winner | Falcons | 7.5% | 2026-06-21 | $1.71M |
| Elon Musk # tweets January 13 - January 20, 2026? | 520-539 | 7.5% | 2026-01-20 | $1.46M |
| Elon Musk # tweets December 12 - December 19, 2025? | 260-279 | 7.5% | 2025-12-19 | $1.11M |
| What price will Bitcoin hit in August? | ↑ 72,500 | 7.5% | 2026-08-20 | $1.03M |
| What price will Bitcoin hit in October? | ↓ 104k | 8.0% | 2025-10-10 | $437.5K |
| Military action against Iran ends? | April 14 | 8.0% | 2026-04-13 | $127.0K |
| Military action against Iran ends? | April 15 | 8.0% | 2026-04-13 | $101.5K |
| QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? | Yes | 8.1% | 2026-05-05 | $25.50M |
| Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Election Winner | TVK | 8.8% | 2026-05-04 | $2.28M |
| NBA: LeBron James Next Team | Philadelphia 76ers | 8.9% | 2026-07-27 | $3.83M |
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