US Open 2026 Results: Zverev and Rybakina Win
Both 2026 US Open singles champions are decided. This record keeps the finals results, how the two Polymarket winner markets settled, and the September 6 favorites board for comparison.
Published July 24, 2026 · Refreshed September 6, 2026 · Settlement record September 23, 2026 · Tournament window: August 23–September 13, 2026 · Finals: September 12–13
The answer first
Alexander Zverev won the 2026 US Open men's singles title, beating No. 8 seed Ben Shelton 6–3, 7–6(2), 5–7, 6–2 in the final on Sunday, September 13: his first US Open and second major of 2026 after the French Open. Elena Rybakina won the women's singles title a day earlier, beating two-time defending champion and No. 1 seed Aryna Sabalenka 6–4, 5–7, 6–2 on Saturday, September 12 for her first US Open and third major. On Polymarket, the Zverev contract in the men's winner event (about $26.38 million cumulative volume) and the Rybakina contract in the women's winner event (about $11.44 million) both settled Yes, as checked on September 23, 2026. Neither September 6 board leader won: Carlos Alcaraz (46.5% displayed) did not reach the men's final, and Sabalenka (26.5%) lost the women's final. This page now stands as the settlement record; the September 6 snapshot below is kept unchanged for comparison.
How the Polymarket winner markets settled
Both events resolved to the official champions under their written rules. Figures below come from the public Gamma API, checked September 23, 2026.
| Draw | Champion | Final | Settled contract | Champion contract volume | Event volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Men's singles | Alexander Zverev (1) | def. Ben Shelton (8) 6–3, 7–6(2), 5–7, 6–2 · Sept 13 | Zverev — Yes ($1.00) | $2,524,800 | $26,376,862 |
| Women's singles | Elena Rybakina (2) | def. Aryna Sabalenka (1) 6–4, 5–7, 6–2 · Sept 12 | Rybakina — Yes ($1.00) | $785,070 | $11,443,411 |
At the September 23 check, 47 of 49 men's rows and 66 of 67 women's rows were closed, and the other closed player contracts settled No. Two men's rows (an unpriced Other row and a Casper Ruud row displayed near 0.05%) and one women's row were still marked open.
The favorites did not win
On September 6 the displayed leaders were Carlos Alcaraz near 46.5% and Aryna Sabalenka near 26.5%. The eventual champions sat second and sixth on those boards: Zverev near 24.5% and Rybakina near 7.3%.
The runner-up was priced low too
Ben Shelton, the men's runner-up, was displayed near 8.6% on September 6. A mid-tournament price is a snapshot of one moment, not a forecast of the final pairing.
What a 7.3% winner means
A contract displayed near 7.3% that later settles Yes does not prove the price was wrong: outcomes priced in single digits are expected to happen some of the time. Calibration is judged across many markets, not one result; see the accuracy guide.
Volume kept growing into the finals
Combined cumulative volume was about $30.25 million on September 6 and about $37.82 million at settlement ($26.38 million men's plus $11.44 million women's).
Official US Open 2026 timeline
The official US Open schedule surface, both exact Gamma events, their component markets, and the complete local Polymarket View archive were checked. The men's and women's events were active, not closed, and distinct from the site's completed Wimbledon match analysis.
Six days before the official window opens, the schedule, live player inventory, open/closed status, contract descriptions, cumulative volumes, and displayed prices were rechecked. Both events remain active; combined reported volume rose from roughly $10.34 million on July 24 to about $13.42 million, and men's 24-hour volume reached roughly $192,000 as tournament approaches.
World No. 1 and previous men's board leader Jannik Sinner withdrew from the 2026 US Open with a right knee injury, per the official tournament announcement reported August 21–22 and follow-up reporting by The Athletic on August 25. Under the reviewed impossibility rule, his Polymarket contract closed at a displayed 0%, removing the August 17 favorite from the open board.
Two days before the singles main draw, both winner events were rechecked: combined reported volume rose from about $13.42 million on August 17 to about $18.93 million, liquidity reached roughly $2.94 million, and the open contract count stood at 60 (20 men, 40 women). The record $108 million player-compensation package and the August 24 rankings basis for seedings were re-verified against the 146th-edition tournament references.
Four-time champion Novak Djokovic lost his opening match to Argentina's Mariano Navone, per AP News on August 31 — only the third opening-round defeat at a major in his career. Under the reviewed impossibility rule, his men's contract closed to No at a displayed 0%, with roughly $1.40 million in lifetime volume.
On the middle weekend, with the round of 16 underway, both winner events were rechecked: combined reported volume reached about $30.25 million, open named contracts narrowed to 31 (15 men, 16 women), and the displayed leaders were Carlos Alcaraz near 46.5% and Aryna Sabalenka near 26.5%.
Elena Rybakina (2) beat two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka (1) 6–4, 5–7, 6–2 for her first US Open title and third major. The Rybakina contract settled Yes.
Alexander Zverev (1) beat Ben Shelton (8) 6–3, 7–6(2), 5–7, 6–2 for his first US Open title and second major of 2026 after the French Open, the first German man to win the US Open since Boris Becker in 1989. The Zverev contract settled Yes.
Both winner events were rechecked after settlement: about $26.38 million in men's and $11.44 million in women's cumulative volume. The page now stands as the record of the 2026 tournament.
The US Open site lists August 23 as the start of its 2026 window, which in recent editions covers fan-week and qualifying activity before the main draw. Session-level timing, draws, and orders of play should come from the official event schedule rather than from a prediction-market API timestamp.
The 146th-edition calendar has the singles main draw starting Sunday, August 30, with the championship scheduled for Sunday, September 13. The draw release in the preceding days is typically the moment when player, quarter, and path questions sharpen.
As players become unable to win under tournament rules, their reviewed player contracts can resolve to No. A change from active to closed is a contract-state update, not proof that every displayed price was previously accurate.
The two reviewed events use September 13 as their top-level end date. The champion declared for each singles tournament—not the end-time field alone—determines the corresponding winning outcome under the written rules.
If a singles tournament is cancelled, postponed beyond October 31, or has no winner declared within the contract's stated timeframe, the reviewed event description assigns the result to Other. This edge case should not be replaced by assumptions based on a normal schedule.
September 6 snapshot (historical): displayed favorites
Kept unchanged as the record of the board a week before the finals. Both tables below were generated from the public Gamma snapshot taken at approximately 14:03 UTC on September 6, 2026, on the middle weekend of the main draw with the round of 16 underway. The percentages are displayed YES prices (last recorded outcome prices), not executable bid or ask quotes, and the volume column is each player contract's reported lifetime volume. A row's lifetime volume can be large because of earlier trading even when its current displayed price is near zero; volume history is not a likelihood statement.
Men's singles winner — top ten by displayed price
| Player | Displayed YES | Contract volume |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | 46.5% | $1,845,680 |
| Alexander Zverev | 24.5% | $902,009 |
| Ben Shelton | 8.6% | $707,643 |
| Daniil Medvedev | 6.5% | $820,788 |
| Learner Tien | 4.3% | $419,178 |
| Frances Tiafoe | 2.3% | $611,192 |
| Alexander Blockx | 1.3% | $297,797 |
| Tommy Paul | 1.2% | $362,463 |
| Alex Michelsen | 1.1% | $316,134 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1.1% | $297,829 |
Event totals at the same snapshot: about $20.90 million cumulative volume, $1.46 million liquidity, and roughly $722,700 in 24-hour volume, with 15 open named contracts (plus an unpriced Other row) out of 49 inventory rows. Jannik Sinner's and Novak Djokovic's rows are closed and therefore excluded from the table: Sinner settled at a displayed 0% after his documented withdrawal, with roughly $516,969 in lifetime volume, and Djokovic settled to No at a displayed 0% after his first-round defeat, with roughly $1,395,327 in lifetime volume. Francisco Cerundolo and Karen Khachanov sat just below the cut at displayed prices near 1.1% and 1.0%.
Women's singles winner — top ten by displayed price
| Player | Displayed YES | Contract volume |
|---|---|---|
| Aryna Sabalenka | 26.5% | $163,394 |
| Coco Gauff | 18.1% | $168,343 |
| Iga Swiatek | 14.5% | $95,715 |
| Jessica Pegula | 8.4% | $211,026 |
| Mirra Andreeva | 7.5% | $161,121 |
| Elena Rybakina | 7.3% | $295,157 |
| Naomi Osaka | 4.2% | $118,498 |
| Marta Kostyuk | 3.9% | $62,453 |
| Iva Jovic | 2.6% | $69,868 |
| Linda Noskova | 2.1% | $90,920 |
Event totals at the same snapshot: about $9.35 million cumulative volume, $0.52 million liquidity, and roughly $182,200 in 24-hour volume, with 16 open named contracts (plus an unpriced Other row) out of 67 inventory rows. Anastasia Potapova and Qinwen Zheng sat just outside the top ten at displayed prices near 1.4%.
What the winner markets covered at the September 6 check
The public Gamma snapshot at approximately 14:03 UTC on September 6 showed two exact, active winner events. The counts below distinguish every row retained in event metadata from the smaller set that was active, not closed, and accepting orders at the check time.
Men's singles winner
15 open named player contracts accepting orders out of 49 total rows in the event inventory. Event metadata reported about $20.90 million in cumulative volume and $1.46 million in liquidity at the snapshot, with roughly $722,700 traded in the prior 24 hours.
Women's singles winner
16 open named player contracts accepting orders out of 67 total rows in the event inventory. Event metadata reported about $9.35 million in cumulative volume and $0.52 million in liquidity at the snapshot, with roughly $182,200 traded in the prior 24 hours.
Combined research surface
The two top-level events therefore represented roughly $30.25 million in reported cumulative volume on September 6, up from about $18.93 million on August 28, $13.42 million on August 17, and $10.34 million on July 24, while reported liquidity fell to roughly $1.98 million from $2.94 million as about two thirds of the player contracts closed. These are timestamped API fields, not a guarantee of future depth.
Separate champions
The men's and women's events settle independently. A price, withdrawal, or result in one draw does not resolve the other event, even though both use the same official tournament window.
Player-specific binaries
Each open row asks whether one named player will win. The displayed YES price belongs to that binary order book; it is not an official seed, sportsbook line, or direct statement from the US Open.
Inventory can change
Total rows can include contracts that are closed or no longer accepting orders—Jannik Sinner's withdrawal and Novak Djokovic's first-round defeat are the live 2026 examples, and roughly two thirds of both inventories had closed by September 6. Always recheck active, closed, accepting-orders, bid, ask, and depth fields before interpreting an old inventory count.
US Open market resolution: six checks that matter
1. Match the event to the draw
Confirm whether the contract names Men's Singles or Women's Singles. A player winning doubles, mixed doubles, qualifying, juniors, or a warm-up tournament would not satisfy the reviewed singles-winner question.
2. Champion, not advancement
A named player must win the specified tournament for that player's YES contract to resolve positively. Reaching the final, leading a live match, or becoming the highest remaining seed is not the same result.
3. Impossibility resolves No
The reviewed text says a player's contract resolves No when it becomes impossible for that player to win under tournament rules. Record the official result and current contract state instead of inferring settlement from a social post.
4. Official source first
The event descriptions name official US Open information as the primary resolution source, while allowing a consensus of credible reporting. A model projection, odds screen, or unofficial bracket is not the named primary evidence.
5. Read the Other fallback
Cancellation, a postponement past October 31, or no declared winner within the stated timeframe sends the event to Other under the reviewed wording. That rule matters even if the normal calendar makes it unlikely.
6. Save the current wording
Market descriptions and status can be clarified over time. A useful research record contains the exact event slug, question, description, UTC timestamp, status, and source—not only one cropped price screenshot.
Why this record stays useful after the finals
Results lookups
Searches for the 2026 champions, final scores, and runners-up continue after the tournament; this page answers them with sourced results rather than pre-tournament odds.
Settlement reference
Anyone reviewing a 2026 US Open winner contract can compare the written rules, the official champions, and the settled rows in one place.
A calibration example
The September 6 board and the final result sit side by side: two favorites who lost, and champions priced near 24.5% and 7.3%. That is a useful reminder of how wide a pre-final probability range can be.
Research workflow for US Open 2026 predictions
Start with the official schedule
Verify the August 23–September 13 window, the August 30 main-draw start, and later session details on the US Open site. Do not derive the tournament calendar from a market end time or an unofficial sports calendar.
Separate men and women
Open the correct event before recording a price. The event title, draw, player name, and singles category should all agree; similar athlete names or copied tabs can create simple classification errors.
Read bid, ask, and depth
Use the prediction-market odds guide and 55¢ probability explainer to distinguish a last trade from an executable quote and to document the spread.
Check tournament status
For prior tennis context, compare the Wimbledon quarterfinal market analysis and the Sinner–Zverev liquidity snapshot, but do not transfer old grass-court prices into a new event.
Understand the product
The prediction markets versus sports betting guide explains why a tradable binary contract, settlement source, and order book differ from a conventional fixed-odds ticket.
Control downside and uncertainty
The risk-management guide and accuracy guide explain why even a high displayed probability is not certainty and why settlement wording matters.
Use movers as a prompt
The biggest-movers watchlist can highlight a price change for investigation. It cannot tell whether the cause was injury news, a draw update, thin liquidity, or a single order.
Compare other future events carefully
The Ballon d'Or 2026 guide and Emmys 2026 guide share calendar-driven search waves, but their nominees, official sources, and settlement rules are unrelated to the US Open.
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2026 US Open?
Alexander Zverev won the men's singles title, beating Ben Shelton 6–3, 7–6(2), 5–7, 6–2 on September 13, 2026. Elena Rybakina won the women's singles title, beating Aryna Sabalenka 6–4, 5–7, 6–2 on September 12, 2026.
How did the Polymarket US Open 2026 winner markets settle?
The Alexander Zverev contract in the men's winner event and the Elena Rybakina contract in the women's winner event both settled Yes, and the other closed player contracts settled No. At the September 23, 2026 check the men's event showed about $26.38 million in cumulative volume and the women's about $11.44 million.
When was the 2026 US Open?
The official 2026 US Open window ran from August 23 through September 13, 2026. The singles main draw began Sunday, August 30; the women's final was played Saturday, September 12 and the men's final Sunday, September 13.
Who was favored before the finals according to prediction markets?
At the September 6, 2026 14:03 UTC snapshot, Carlos Alcaraz led the men's winner market at a displayed YES price near 46.5%, ahead of Alexander Zverev near 24.5% and Ben Shelton near 8.6%, after previous favorite Jannik Sinner withdrew and Novak Djokovic was eliminated in round one. Aryna Sabalenka led the women's winner market near 26.5%, ahead of Coco Gauff near 18.1% and Iga Swiatek near 14.5%. Neither leader won: Zverev and Rybakina took the titles.
Can you still trade the 2026 US Open winner markets?
Not in any meaningful way: both champion contracts settled Yes and nearly every other player contract has closed. At the September 23, 2026 check, two men's rows (an unpriced Other row and one player row displayed near 0.05%) and one women's row were still marked open.
Why is Jannik Sinner missing from the men's favorites table?
Jannik Sinner withdrew from the 2026 US Open with a right knee injury before the draw, per the official tournament announcement reported August 21–22, 2026 and follow-up reporting by The Athletic on August 25. Under the reviewed impossibility rule, his player contract closed at a displayed price of 0%, which is why both the August 28 and September 6 men's tables start with Carlos Alcaraz. The withdrawal removed the men's board leader from the August 17 snapshot, when Sinner's displayed price was near 50.5%.
Why is Novak Djokovic missing from the men's favorites table?
Novak Djokovic was eliminated in the first round of the 2026 US Open by Mariano Navone, per AP News on August 31, 2026 — only the third opening-round loss at a major of his career. Under the reviewed impossibility rule, his player contract closed to No at a displayed 0%, with roughly $1.40 million in lifetime volume, so he no longer appears among open contracts.
What do the US Open winner markets resolve on?
The reviewed men's event resolves to the player who wins the 2026 US Open Men's Singles Tournament, while the women's event resolves to the player who wins the Women's Singles Tournament. They are separate events with separate player contracts.
What happens when a listed player can no longer win?
The reviewed rules say a listed player's corresponding contract resolves No once it becomes impossible for that player to win under the tournament rules. Jannik Sinner's contract closing at a displayed 0% after his documented pre-tournament withdrawal, and Novak Djokovic's closing after his first-round defeat, are live 2026 examples. Researchers should still read the current contract text before relying on a status label.
What happens if the 2026 US Open is cancelled or postponed?
The reviewed event descriptions say the event resolves to Other if the relevant singles tournament is cancelled, postponed beyond October 31, 2026, or has no declared winner within that timeframe.
Will this page be updated again?
This is now the settlement record for the 2026 tournament. It will only change for a correction, a rules clarification, or a change in the settled results; the 2027 US Open will be covered separately.
Related analysis on the blog
- The Board Says Tien: Prediction Market Odds for Three US Open Match Books — September 07, 2026
Sources and methodology
- Wikipedia: 2026 US Open – Men's singles — final: Zverev (1) def. Shelton (8) 6–3, 7–6(7–2), 5–7, 6–2 on September 13, 2026; second major after the 2026 French Open. Checked September 23, 2026.
- Wikipedia: 2026 US Open – Women's singles — final: Rybakina (2) def. Sabalenka (1) 6–4, 5–7, 6–2 on September 12, 2026; third major. Checked September 23, 2026.
- Official and credible reporting on the finals — "Alexander Zverev defeats Ben Shelton to win 2026 US Open" (usopen.org, September 13, 2026); "Rybakina defeats two-time defending champion Sabalenka to win 2026 US Open" (usopen.org, September 12, 2026); CNN coverage of both finals. Headlines verified September 23, 2026.
- Official US Open event schedule — official tournament schedule surface and the August 23–September 13, 2026 window. Checked July 24, 2026.
- Wikipedia: 2026 US Open (tennis) — 146th-edition references confirming the August 23–September 13 window, the August 30–September 13 singles main-draw span, the record $108 million player compensation, the August 24 rankings basis for seedings, and the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center venue. Checked September 6, 2026.
- Credible reporting on the Sinner withdrawal — "Jannik Sinner withdraws from 2026 US Open with right knee injury" (US Open Tennis, August 22, 2026); The Athletic / The New York Times follow-up (August 25, 2026); "Carlos Alcaraz favored at US Open with Jannik Sinner injured" (ESPN, August 27, 2026). Headlines and publication dates verified through the Google News index; checked August 28, 2026.
- Credible reporting on the Djokovic result — "Novak Djokovic loses in opening round of US Open" (AP News, August 31, 2026; opponent Mariano Navone), cited in the 2026 US Open Wikipedia references. Headline and publication date verified September 6, 2026.
- Official US Open site — named primary resolution source in both reviewed prediction-market events. Checked July 24, 2026.
- Polymarket Gamma: 2026 Men's US Open Winner — exact event status, player inventory, cumulative volume/liquidity fields, singles-winner rule, impossibility rule, official source, and cancellation fallback. Checked September 6, 2026 at approximately 14:03 UTC; settlement rechecked September 23, 2026.
- Polymarket Gamma: 2026 Women's US Open Winner — exact women's event status, player inventory, cumulative volume/liquidity fields, and parallel resolution wording. Checked September 6, 2026 at approximately 14:03 UTC; settlement rechecked September 23, 2026.
- Public men's US Open event and public women's US Open event — live surfaces for current quotes, depth, status, and contract text. The snapshot tables above are timestamped research records, not live feeds.
Candidate and cannibalization review for the original publication covered the complete 98-entry blog index, all 98 article HTML files, all eleven pre-existing event hubs, the 118-URL pre-publication sitemap, proactive state, current-day publisher logs and reports, and the latest local GSC snapshot/watchlist. Existing Wimbledon pages cover completed match-specific analysis rather than the dated 2026 US Open winner intent, so this durable event URL fills a separate search need. The August 28 refresh reused the same canonical URL, re-verified the resolution wording against both live event descriptions, and re-checked the complete 110-entry blog archive, all 23 sibling hubs, and the 143-URL sitemap for overlap before updating. The September 6 mid-tournament refresh again reused the same canonical URL, re-verified the resolution wording and the Djokovic result against live sources, and re-checked the complete blog archive, all sibling hubs, and the current sitemap for overlap; the dated 2026 US Open winner intent remains uniquely served by this page. The September 23 settlement record kept the same canonical URL and replaced forward-looking copy with verified results and settlement data.