2026 Nobel Prize Predictions: October 5–12 Dates & Peace Prize Market
The official announcement calendar, the live Polymarket Nobel Peace Prize market, and the exact settlement rules researchers need before Nobel Week.
Published July 16, 2026 · Event window: October 5–12, 2026 · Pre-announcement refresh October 3, 2026 · Next refresh: during Nobel Week
The answer first
The 2026 Nobel Prize announcements run from Monday, October 5 through Monday, October 12, 2026. The Nobel Peace Prize is scheduled for Friday, October 9 at 11:00 CEST, announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee in Oslo. The Polymarket event on the Peace Prize winner is the only live Nobel 2026 prediction market we could verify: at the October 3, 2026 snapshot — two days before the first announcement — it carried about $25.8 million in cumulative volume (up about $2.3 million since our August 18 snapshot), about $1.8 million in liquidity, and roughly $176,700 traded in the last 24 hours, more than five times the August pace. The board has a new leader: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms at 15.4 cents, displacing Yulia Navalnaya (3.8 cents). This page tracks the confirmed calendar, the market board, and the written resolution rules — not nominee rumors.
Official 2026 Nobel announcement timeline
11:30 CEST at the earliest, announced by the Nobel Assembly at Karolinska Institutet. Next announcement on the calendar.
11:45 CEST at the earliest, announced by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.
11:45 CEST at the earliest, announced by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.
13:00 CEST at the earliest, announced by the Swedish Academy.
11:00 CEST, announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee in Oslo — the category with the live prediction market tracked below.
11:45 CEST at the earliest, announced by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.
October 3 snapshot: the live Peace Prize market
The Polymarket event Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 lists 71 candidate contracts and had traded about $25.77 million by the 2026-10-03, 14:07 UTC snapshot. The board re-priced sharply since August: the leader changed, two organizations climbed, and two of August's top three names fell hard. 23 of the 71 outcomes carried a displayed YES price of at least 0.1 cents.
Cumulative volume
≈ $25,770,720 across all candidate contracts in the event (+$2.3 million vs August 18).
Liquidity
≈ $1,762,210 standing liquidity at the snapshot time.
24-hour volume
≈ $176,713 traded in the 24 hours before the snapshot — more than 5× the August 18 pace.
Listed outcomes
71 candidate contracts, 23 with a displayed YES price of at least 0.1 cents.
| Candidate | YES price (Oct 3) | Contract volume |
|---|---|---|
| Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | 15.4¢ | $50,288 |
| Save the Children | 7.0¢ | $22,411 |
| the International Court of Justice | 6.0¢ | $922,857 |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 3.8¢ | $336,638 |
| Committee to Protect Journalists | 2.6¢ | $8,516 |
| Reporters Without Borders | 2.6¢ | $11,075 |
| Sara Al-Saqqa | 2.5¢ | $11,443 |
| UNRWA | 2.2¢ | $2,065,537 |
| Mark Carney | 2.0¢ | $10,597 |
| Hussam Abu Safiya | 1.9¢ | $9,548 |
Reading notes: first, volume is not probability — the most-traded single contract is still Donald Trump at about $5,753,706 of lifetime volume despite a 0.8¢ price, which usually signals disagreement and churn rather than consensus. Second, both individuals and organizations are listed, so the joint-award precedence rules below matter as much as the prices. All figures are timestamped market data, not official Nobel forecasts, and they will keep moving until the October 9 announcement.
Three snapshots, one trajectory
| Snapshot | Cumulative volume | 24-hour volume | Priced (≥0.1¢) | Leader |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 16, 2026 | — (no verified live market) | — | — | — |
| August 18, 2026 | $23,444,338 | $31,908 | 20 | Yulia Navalnaya (8.5¢) |
| October 3, 2026 | $25,770,720 | $176,713 | 23 | Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms (15.4¢) |
The pattern is the scheduled-demand shape this page was built for: volume compounds steadily between milestones, then 24-hour turnover multiplies as the fixed announcement date approaches — $31,908 at an eight-week horizon, roughly $176,713 at two days. Expect the next re-capture (final pre-announcement, October 8) to show a further acceleration, and treat the decision-day update as the only numbers that settle anything.
What moved since August 18
New leader: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms
The Sudanese mutual-aid networks now trade at 15.4¢ — up from below 0.1 cents at the August 18 snapshot, when they were not among the priced outcomes at all ($50,288 contract volume).
Save the Children enters the board
Another organization new to the priced field since August, now second at 7.0¢.
International Court of Justice more than doubled
6.0¢, up from 2.6 cents on August 18 — the strongest climb among August's already-priced names.
Navalnaya cedes the lead
August's 8.5-cent leader Yulia Navalnaya trades at 3.8¢ in this snapshot, fourth on the board.
Zelenskyy and UNRWA fade
Volodymyr Zelenskyy fell from 5.5 cents to 1.0¢; UNRWA halved from 4.2 cents to 2.2¢.
Activity is accelerating
Cumulative volume rose from $23.44 million to about $25.77 million, 24-hour turnover rose from $31,908 to about $176,713, and the priced field grew from 20 to 23 outcomes.
How the Peace Prize market resolves
The market's written rules are the settlement source, and this event uses several precedence rules that a casual reader would miss. Verified against the event's published description on October 3, 2026 — unchanged since August:
Official announcement decides
The market resolves to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee; the first official announcement is the resolution source.
One winner, even for a shared prize
If multiple listed recipients jointly receive the prize, the contract still resolves to a single winner under fixed precedence rules — not to every co-laureate.
Five-name precedence rule
If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk is among the recipients, the market resolves to the highest-ranked of those five in that exact order.
Individual beats organization
If none of those five wins and the prize is shared by at least one listed individual and one listed organization, the individual takes precedence. If all co-recipients are the same type, alphabetical order by last name or entity name decides.
Hard deadline
If no official announcement has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “Other.” The event's stated end date is April 1, 2027.
Why interest surges this week
Three forces make this a scheduled-demand event rather than a news-driven one. First, the calendar is fixed: the announcement dates have been public since February, so date-first queries (“Nobel Prize announcement dates”, “when is the Nobel Peace Prize announced”) recur every year and peak in the days around October 5–12 — which begin in two days. Second, the market is maturing into the event: 24-hour turnover has risen from about $31,900 in mid-August to about $176,700 in this snapshot, a pace that typically accelerates through announcement day. Third, the field is wide open: even the new leader trades at 15.4 cents, so every news cycle about a listed name — or an unlisted one — can move prices and send people searching for context. The page's job is to be the calm, sourced reference underneath that wave.
Prediction-market context
October 3 re-check: the Peace Prize event remains the only live, verified Nobel 2026 market we could find on Polymarket — no science, literature, or economic-sciences contracts had launched. If eligible contracts for those categories appear during Nobel Week, they will be added with timestamped prices at a later refresh.
Category is essential
“Nobel Prize” is not one outcome. Peace, literature, sciences, and economic sciences have different awarding bodies, schedules, and candidate pools.
Nominee lists are tricky
For the Peace Prize, official nomination information is confidential for 50 years. Public claims that someone was nominated are not the same as an official shortlist.
Joint awards matter
The live market's precedence rules show how a shared prize can resolve to one contract winner. Any future Nobel market must be read the same way.
Use primary resolution
The official prize announcement should outrank commentary, leaks, betting pages, or social posts unless a contract explicitly says otherwise.
How to research Nobel prediction odds
1. Read the contract first
Confirm category, named outcome, official source, deadline, joint-winner treatment, and cancellation language.
2. Timestamp the board
Save price, bid/ask spread, depth, volume, and capture time. A last trade alone can be misleading in a wide field.
3. Separate evidence types
Official dates are facts. Published work, expert commentary, prizes, and public campaigns are signals of unequal quality—not proof.
4. Expect attention waves
Search and market interest typically rises through the announcement week; the 24-hour volume jump since August is that pattern forming.
5. Compare probability carefully
Use our prediction-market odds guide before treating cents as a clean probability estimate.
6. Check large moves
The biggest-movers watchlist can surface changes if Nobel markets become active, but a move is a research prompt, not a signal.
7. Keep award calendars separate
The Ballon d'Or 2026 guide tracks a distinct late-October football-award cycle with its own settlement rules.
Frequently asked questions
When are the 2026 Nobel Prizes announced?
The official announcement period runs October 5–12, 2026. Medicine is October 5, physics October 6, chemistry October 7, literature October 8, peace October 9, and economic sciences October 12.
When is the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize announced?
The Norwegian Nobel Committee is scheduled to announce the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize on Friday, October 9 at 11:00 CEST.
Is there a Nobel Peace Prize 2026 prediction market?
Yes. As of the October 3, 2026 snapshot, Polymarket lists an active Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 event with about $25.8 million in cumulative volume, about $1.8 million in liquidity, and about $176,700 in 24-hour volume across 71 candidate contracts. It is an independent market, not an official Nobel activity.
Who leads the Nobel Peace Prize 2026 market?
At the October 3, 2026 snapshot, Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms led at 15.4 cents, followed by Save the Children at 7.0 cents and the International Court of Justice at 6.0 cents. No candidate trades above 16 cents, and prices move constantly.
Does a public nomination claim prove eligibility or finalist status?
No. The Norwegian Nobel Committee says nominee information is confidential for 50 years and does not confirm current nominees. Public claims need careful sourcing.
Are market odds the same as an official Nobel forecast?
No. They are prices for rules-based contracts and may be influenced by liquidity, spreads, positioning, and incomplete information.
Can an organization win the Nobel Peace Prize?
Yes. Organizations have received the Peace Prize many times — for example the World Food Programme (2020) and Nihon Hidankyo (2024), while the International Committee of the Red Cross has won it several times historically. That matters for this market: the October 3 board is led by organizations, and the joint-award precedence rules treat individuals and organizations differently.
What is the “Other” outcome and when does it apply?
The written rules state that if no official announcement has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “Other.” The event's stated end date, April 1, 2027, matches that deadline.
Where can I watch the 2026 announcements?
All prize announcements are broadcast live on the official Nobel Prize digital channels; the official schedule lists a live stream for each announcement, and the Peace Prize announcement from Oslo is scheduled for 11:00 CEST on Friday, October 9.
When will this page be refreshed?
During Nobel Week, October 5–12, 2026, with a final pre-announcement update planned for October 8 and a decision-day update on October 9 after the announcement. An earlier refresh is warranted if the market closes, its rules change, or the official schedule changes.
Sources and methodology
- NobelPrize.org: The 2026 Nobel Prize announcements — official October 5–12 schedule, times, and awarding institutions (press release issued February 2, 2026; re-verified October 3, 2026).
- Norwegian Nobel Committee: Nomination — nomination process and the 50-year confidentiality rule.
- Polymarket Gamma API: Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 event — volume, liquidity, prices, and published resolution rules captured at the 2026-10-03, 14:07 UTC snapshot (October 3, 2026).
- Polymarket: Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 — the live event page for the market tracked above.
- Methodology: July 16, 2026 checks found no active Nobel contract, and no prices were published then. The August 18, 2026 snapshot documented the verified live Peace Prize event ($23.44 million volume; Navalnaya leading at 8.5 cents). The October 3, 2026 pre-announcement refresh re-verified the official calendar and resolution rules and re-captured the board ($25.77 million volume; Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms leading at 15.4 cents). Only the Peace Prize market is verified live; science, literature, and economics markets remain unverified. All prices are timestamped snapshots and will change.