{
 "slug": "which-banks-will-fail-by-end-of-2026",
 "title": "Which banks will fail by end of 2026?",
 "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/which-banks-will-fail-by-end-of-2026/",
 "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-banks-will-fail-by-end-of-2026",
 "category": "economy",
 "closed": false,
 "updated": "2026-10-06T12:50:00+00:00",
 "end_date": "2027-05-01T03:59:00+00:00",
 "volume": 80720.78,
 "volume_24h": 1809.5,
 "liquidity": 20675.73,
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Goldman Sachs",
   "probability": 0.08,
   "change_24h": -0.0485,
   "volume": 759.2,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "RBC",
   "probability": 0.0335,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume": 558.98,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "US Bank",
   "probability": 0.032,
   "change_24h": -0.0025,
   "volume": 9760.29,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Truist",
   "probability": 0.029,
   "change_24h": -0.0015,
   "volume": 10432.14,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "BNP Paribas",
   "probability": 0.0275,
   "change_24h": -0.0015,
   "volume": 786.11,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Santander",
   "probability": 0.0255,
   "change_24h": 0.0005,
   "volume": 3406.29,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "BNY",
   "probability": 0.025,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume": 3378.71,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Wells Fargo",
   "probability": 0.0245,
   "change_24h": -0.0045,
   "volume": 6955.01,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Scotiabank",
   "probability": 0.0235,
   "change_24h": 0.001,
   "volume": 3979.76,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Citigroup",
   "probability": 0.023,
   "change_24h": -0.0005,
   "volume": 3237.35,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Morgan Stanley",
   "probability": 0.023,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume": 605.79,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "KeyBank",
   "probability": 0.0225,
   "change_24h": -0.011,
   "volume": 9897.58,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Bank of America",
   "probability": 0.022,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume": 639.58,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Deutsche Bank",
   "probability": 0.0195,
   "change_24h": 0.0045,
   "volume": 10323.51,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "HSBC",
   "probability": 0.0195,
   "change_24h": -0.0045,
   "volume": 2182.98,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "JPMorgan Chase",
   "probability": 0.019,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume": 839.31,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "BMO",
   "probability": 0.018,
   "change_24h": -0.01,
   "volume": 1740.2,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Lloyds",
   "probability": 0.0175,
   "change_24h": -0.0125,
   "volume": 9168.49,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "UBS",
   "probability": 0.012,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume": 2069.49,
   "closed": false
  }
 ],
 "history": {
  "Goldman Sachs": [
   [
    1788739227,
    0.0105
   ],
   [
    1788782412,
    0.0105
   ],
   [
    1788825612,
    0.0105
   ],
   [
    1788868813,
    0.0105
   ],
   [
    1788912018,
    0.0105
   ],
   [
    1788955214,
    0.01
   ],
   [
    1788998414,
    0.01
   ],
   [
    1789041613,
    0.01
   ],
   [
    1789084814,
    0.01
   ],
   [
    1789128015,
    0.01
   ],
   [
    1789171214,
    0.01
   ],
   [
    1789214414,
    0.01
   ],
   [
    1789257613,
    0.01
   ],
   [
    1789300817,
    0.01
   ],
   [
    1789344012,
    0.01
   ],
   [
    1789387212,
    0.01
   ],
   [
    1789430412,
    0.01
   ],
   [
    1789473612,
    0.01
   ],
   [
    1789516813,
    0.01
   ],
   [
    1789560012,
    0.01
   ],
   [
    1789603212,
    0.01
   ],
   [
    1789646412,
    0.01
   ],
   [
    1789689615,
    0.01
   ],
   [
    1789732814,
    0.01
   ],
   [
    1789776015,
    0.0095
   ],
   [
    1789819215,
    0.0095
   ],
   [
    1789862415,
    0.0095
   ],
   [
    1789905612,
    0.0095
   ],
   [
    1789948812,
    0.0095
   ],
   [
    1789992010,
    0.0095
   ],
   [
    1790035213,
    0.0095
   ],
   [
    1790078412,
    0.0095
   ],
   [
    1790121613,
    0.0095
   ],
   [
    1790164814,
    0.0095
   ],
   [
    1790208025,
    0.01
   ],
   [
    1790251213,
    0.01
   ],
   [
    1790294416,
    0.0095
   ],
   [
    1790337615,
    0.0095
   ],
   [
    1790380815,
    0.0095
   ],
   [
    1790424014,
    0.0095
   ],
   [
    1790467214,
    0.0095
   ],
   [
    1790510413,
    0.0095
   ],
   [
    1790553628,
    0.0095
   ],
   [
    1790596814,
    0.0095
   ],
   [
    1790640015,
    0.0095
   ],
   [
    1790683216,
    0.0095
   ],
   [
    1790726416,
    0.0095
   ],
   [
    1790769616,
    0.0095
   ],
   [
    1790812817,
    0.0095
   ],
   [
    1790856015,
    0.0095
   ],
   [
    1790899215,
    0.0095
   ],
   [
    1790942416,
    0.0095
   ],
   [
    1790985618,
    0.0475
   ],
   [
    1791028815,
    0.046
   ],
   [
    1791072016,
    0.1355
   ],
   [
    1791115217,
    0.1245
   ],
   [
    1791158418,
    0.0645
   ],
   [
    1791201616,
    0.127
   ],
   [
    1791244817,
    0.08
   ],
   [
    1791288019,
    0.08
   ],
   [
    1791291980,
    0.08
   ]
  ],
  "RBC": [
   [
    1788739234,
    0.034
   ],
   [
    1788782422,
    0.034
   ],
   [
    1788825617,
    0.034
   ],
   [
    1788868820,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1788912025,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1788955223,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1788998420,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1789041620,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1789084822,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1789128024,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1789171222,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1789214424,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1789257621,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1789300824,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1789344018,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1789387216,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1789430417,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1789473617,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1789516818,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1789560027,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1789603220,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1789646420,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1789689623,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1789732824,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1789776024,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1789819224,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1789862423,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1789905620,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1789948820,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1789992015,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1790035220,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1790078420,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1790121622,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1790164831,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1790208033,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1790251222,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1790294426,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1790337620,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1790380820,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1790424019,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1790467220,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1790510419,
    0.034
   ],
   [
    1790553634,
    0.031
   ],
   [
    1790596819,
    0.0315
   ],
   [
    1790640021,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1790683223,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1790726422,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1790769622,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1790812824,
    0.034
   ],
   [
    1790856023,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1790899222,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1790942422,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1790985626,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1791028823,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1791072022,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1791115224,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1791158427,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1791201626,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1791244825,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1791288029,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1791291983,
    0.0335
   ]
  ],
  "US Bank": [
   [
    1788739231,
    0.031
   ],
   [
    1788782418,
    0.03
   ],
   [
    1788825615,
    0.0395
   ],
   [
    1788868818,
    0.0415
   ],
   [
    1788912023,
    0.045
   ],
   [
    1788955220,
    0.0315
   ],
   [
    1788998418,
    0.0425
   ],
   [
    1789041618,
    0.041
   ],
   [
    1789084819,
    0.035
   ],
   [
    1789128021,
    0.0355
   ],
   [
    1789171219,
    0.034
   ],
   [
    1789214420,
    0.03
   ],
   [
    1789257618,
    0.039
   ],
   [
    1789300822,
    0.0355
   ],
   [
    1789344016,
    0.032
   ],
   [
    1789387214,
    0.032
   ],
   [
    1789430414,
    0.032
   ],
   [
    1789473615,
    0.032
   ],
   [
    1789516816,
    0.0315
   ],
   [
    1789560022,
    0.0315
   ],
   [
    1789603217,
    0.0315
   ],
   [
    1789646416,
    0.0315
   ],
   [
    1789689620,
    0.0315
   ],
   [
    1789732820,
    0.032
   ],
   [
    1789776021,
    0.0315
   ],
   [
    1789819221,
    0.0315
   ],
   [
    1789862420,
    0.0315
   ],
   [
    1789905617,
    0.0315
   ],
   [
    1789948817,
    0.0315
   ],
   [
    1789992013,
    0.0315
   ],
   [
    1790035217,
    0.0315
   ],
   [
    1790078417,
    0.0315
   ],
   [
    1790121619,
    0.0315
   ],
   [
    1790164824,
    0.0315
   ],
   [
    1790208030,
    0.0315
   ],
   [
    1790251219,
    0.0315
   ],
   [
    1790294422,
    0.0315
   ],
   [
    1790337617,
    0.0315
   ],
   [
    1790380818,
    0.0315
   ],
   [
    1790424017,
    0.039
   ],
   [
    1790467217,
    0.039
   ],
   [
    1790510416,
    0.04
   ],
   [
    1790553631,
    0.0435
   ],
   [
    1790596817,
    0.043
   ],
   [
    1790640018,
    0.0355
   ],
   [
    1790683220,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1790726420,
    0.033
   ],
   [
    1790769619,
    0.034
   ],
   [
    1790812821,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1790856020,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1790899219,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1790942419,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1790985622,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1791028820,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1791072019,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1791115221,
    0.0335
   ],
   [
    1791158423,
    0.033
   ],
   [
    1791201622,
    0.0355
   ],
   [
    1791244821,
    0.0325
   ],
   [
    1791288025,
    0.032
   ],
   [
    1791291982,
    0.032
   ]
  ]
 },
 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
 "attribution": {
  "required": true,
  "text": "Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com",
  "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/which-banks-will-fail-by-end-of-2026/",
  "html": "<a href=\"https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/which-banks-will-fail-by-end-of-2026/\">Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com</a>"
 },
 "source": "Polymarket public Gamma and CLOB APIs; not affiliated with Polymarket."
}
