{
 "slug": "2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-224",
 "title": "2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory",
 "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-224/",
 "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-224",
 "category": "politics",
 "closed": false,
 "updated": "2026-10-06T12:50:00+00:00",
 "end_date": "2026-11-04T04:59:00+00:00",
 "volume": 153307.61,
 "volume_24h": 2455.1,
 "liquidity": 464254.86,
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Democrats 8-10%",
   "probability": 0.295,
   "change_24h": 0.005,
   "volume": 16183.07,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrats 10-12%",
   "probability": 0.225,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume": 10344.54,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrats 6-8%",
   "probability": 0.175,
   "change_24h": -0.015,
   "volume": 17070.77,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrats 12-14%",
   "probability": 0.1015,
   "change_24h": 0.007,
   "volume": 5749.35,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrats 4-6%",
   "probability": 0.085,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume": 7868.21,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrats 2-4%",
   "probability": 0.0595,
   "change_24h": -0.0055,
   "volume": 17209.52,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrats 16%+",
   "probability": 0.0355,
   "change_24h": -0.0005,
   "volume": 4883.55,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrats 14-16%",
   "probability": 0.035,
   "change_24h": 0.016,
   "volume": 4506.58,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Democrats 0-2%",
   "probability": 0.0345,
   "change_24h": -0.006,
   "volume": 21766.81,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republicans 2-4%",
   "probability": 0.025,
   "change_24h": -0.002,
   "volume": 31177.91,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republicans 0-2%",
   "probability": 0.023,
   "change_24h": -0.011,
   "volume": 6706.23,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republicans 4-6%",
   "probability": 0.0215,
   "change_24h": -0.02,
   "volume": 4980.87,
   "closed": false
  },
  {
   "name": "Republicans 6%+",
   "probability": 0.0085,
   "change_24h": 0.0005,
   "volume": 4860.23,
   "closed": false
  }
 ],
 "history": {
  "Democrats 8-10%": [
   [
    1788739227,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1788782412,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1788825612,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1788868813,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1788912018,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1788955214,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1788998414,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1789041613,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1789084814,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1789128015,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1789171214,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1789214414,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1789257613,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1789300817,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1789344012,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1789387212,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1789430412,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1789473612,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1789516813,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1789560012,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1789603212,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1789646412,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1789689615,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1789732814,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1789776015,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1789819215,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1789862415,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1789905612,
    0.265
   ],
   [
    1789948812,
    0.265
   ],
   [
    1789992010,
    0.265
   ],
   [
    1790035213,
    0.265
   ],
   [
    1790078412,
    0.265
   ],
   [
    1790121613,
    0.265
   ],
   [
    1790164814,
    0.265
   ],
   [
    1790208025,
    0.265
   ],
   [
    1790251213,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1790294416,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1790337615,
    0.285
   ],
   [
    1790380815,
    0.285
   ],
   [
    1790424014,
    0.285
   ],
   [
    1790467214,
    0.285
   ],
   [
    1790510413,
    0.285
   ],
   [
    1790553628,
    0.285
   ],
   [
    1790596814,
    0.285
   ],
   [
    1790640015,
    0.295
   ],
   [
    1790683216,
    0.295
   ],
   [
    1790726416,
    0.295
   ],
   [
    1790769615,
    0.29
   ],
   [
    1790812817,
    0.28
   ],
   [
    1790856015,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1790899215,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1790942416,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1790985619,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1791028815,
    0.275
   ],
   [
    1791072016,
    0.285
   ],
   [
    1791115217,
    0.29
   ],
   [
    1791158418,
    0.29
   ],
   [
    1791201616,
    0.29
   ],
   [
    1791244818,
    0.295
   ],
   [
    1791288021,
    0.295
   ],
   [
    1791291793,
    0.295
   ]
  ],
  "Democrats 10-12%": [
   [
    1788739229,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1788782415,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1788825614,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1788868816,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1788912020,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1788955217,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1788998416,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1789041615,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1789084817,
    0.195
   ],
   [
    1789128018,
    0.195
   ],
   [
    1789171217,
    0.195
   ],
   [
    1789214418,
    0.195
   ],
   [
    1789257615,
    0.195
   ],
   [
    1789300819,
    0.195
   ],
   [
    1789344014,
    0.195
   ],
   [
    1789387212,
    0.195
   ],
   [
    1789430413,
    0.195
   ],
   [
    1789473613,
    0.195
   ],
   [
    1789516814,
    0.2
   ],
   [
    1789560016,
    0.2
   ],
   [
    1789603214,
    0.195
   ],
   [
    1789646414,
    0.195
   ],
   [
    1789689617,
    0.195
   ],
   [
    1789732817,
    0.195
   ],
   [
    1789776018,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1789819218,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1789862417,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1789905614,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1789948812,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1789992010,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1790035214,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1790078414,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1790121615,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1790164818,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1790208027,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1790251215,
    0.205
   ],
   [
    1790294419,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1790337616,
    0.22
   ],
   [
    1790380816,
    0.21
   ],
   [
    1790424015,
    0.21
   ],
   [
    1790467215,
    0.205
   ],
   [
    1790510414,
    0.21
   ],
   [
    1790553629,
    0.21
   ],
   [
    1790596815,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1790640016,
    0.205
   ],
   [
    1790683218,
    0.21
   ],
   [
    1790726418,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1790769617,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1790812819,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1790856017,
    0.235
   ],
   [
    1790899217,
    0.23
   ],
   [
    1790942417,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1790985620,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1791028817,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1791072017,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1791115218,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1791158420,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1791201619,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1791244819,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1791288022,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1791291793,
    0.225
   ]
  ],
  "Democrats 6-8%": [
   [
    1788739234,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1788782423,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1788825617,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1788868820,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1788912026,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1788955224,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1788998420,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1789041621,
    0.225
   ],
   [
    1789084823,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1789128025,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1789171223,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1789214425,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1789257622,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1789300825,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1789344019,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1789387217,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1789430417,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1789473618,
    0.215
   ],
   [
    1789516818,
    0.205
   ],
   [
    1789560029,
    0.205
   ],
   [
    1789603221,
    0.205
   ],
   [
    1789646420,
    0.205
   ],
   [
    1789689624,
    0.205
   ],
   [
    1789732825,
    0.205
   ],
   [
    1789776025,
    0.19
   ],
   [
    1789819226,
    0.19
   ],
   [
    1789862424,
    0.19
   ],
   [
    1789905621,
    0.18
   ],
   [
    1789948821,
    0.18
   ],
   [
    1789992016,
    0.18
   ],
   [
    1790035221,
    0.175
   ],
   [
    1790078421,
    0.175
   ],
   [
    1790121623,
    0.175
   ],
   [
    1790164833,
    0.175
   ],
   [
    1790208034,
    0.175
   ],
   [
    1790251223,
    0.17
   ],
   [
    1790294427,
    0.17
   ],
   [
    1790337621,
    0.17
   ],
   [
    1790380821,
    0.17
   ],
   [
    1790424020,
    0.17
   ],
   [
    1790467221,
    0.17
   ],
   [
    1790510421,
    0.17
   ],
   [
    1790553635,
    0.18
   ],
   [
    1790596820,
    0.175
   ],
   [
    1790640022,
    0.17
   ],
   [
    1790683224,
    0.175
   ],
   [
    1790726423,
    0.17
   ],
   [
    1790769623,
    0.185
   ],
   [
    1790812825,
    0.185
   ],
   [
    1790856024,
    0.185
   ],
   [
    1790899224,
    0.185
   ],
   [
    1790942423,
    0.185
   ],
   [
    1790985627,
    0.195
   ],
   [
    1791028825,
    0.195
   ],
   [
    1791072023,
    0.195
   ],
   [
    1791115225,
    0.195
   ],
   [
    1791158428,
    0.195
   ],
   [
    1791201627,
    0.19
   ],
   [
    1791244826,
    0.175
   ],
   [
    1791288030,
    0.175
   ],
   [
    1791291796,
    0.175
   ]
  ]
 },
 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
 "attribution": {
  "required": true,
  "text": "Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com",
  "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-224/",
  "html": "<a href=\"https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-224/\">Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com</a>"
 },
 "source": "Polymarket public Gamma and CLOB APIs; not affiliated with Polymarket."
}